First Quarter Chartbook for 2024

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ur second edition of the Investment Strategy Chartbook is now available for download in the link below. This is filled with many observations of the economy, insights on markets, and commentary on themes that we believe are most relevant to the near-term investment environment.

Some of the more interesting charts this quarter include:

The market environment has transitioned from Decelerating Growth/Decelerating Inflation to Accelerating Growth/Decelerating Inflation

We tend to be hesitant to use “goldilocks” to describe the U.S. economy, however, that may be the best descriptive as we have transitioned to an Accelerating Growth/Decelerating Inflation environment.  This tends to be quite positive for equities with an average historical probability of approximately 85% for a positive 12-month return.

It certainly looks like the recession risk is behind the United States

The Leading Economic Index has started to turn up. The current change in the LEI is more consistent with the end of a U.S. economic recession as opposed to the beginning. We are suggesting that the recessionary pressures may be behind us.

The Fixed Income environment offers attractive yields

With inflation easing, central bank rates have peaked.  Corporate spreads are near their historical averages while yields are above historical averages. The fixed income environment is much improved from a couple of years ago.

To download the Investment Strategy Chartbook, click on the download button below.

This document is in PDF form and is also available in French. Please contact our team for a French copy. As always, should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our team directly at chimuk.landry@igpwm.ca.

The Chimuk Landry Team